| 한 · 중 간 Sea & Air 물동량 전망 및 활성화 방안에 관한 연구 |
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정현재, 전준우, 여기태, 양창호 |
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| Forecasting and Suggesting the Activation Strategies for Sea & Air Transportation between Korea and China |
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Hyun-Jae Jung, Jun-Woo Jeon, Gi-Tae Yeo, Chang-Ho Yang |
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| Abstract |
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In early 1990s, the Sea & Air Transport Cargoes (SATC) was increased annually with more than 50% rate due to the rising trade between Korea and China. However, after that, the increasing rate of the SATC was slowdown from the late 1990s, furthermore, recently it became sluggish and declined. This phenomenon is totally different compared to the skyrocketing trade volumes between two countries. In this respect, to forecast the SATC, draw out the factors for activation, and calculate the weight of priority of these factors are urgently needed. To achieve the research objectives, the ARIMA and Fuzzy-AHP were used as research methodology. The estimated volume of SATC using the data from year 2007 to 2012 on the ARIMA model, will be reached approximately 33,000 tons in year 2015. In the mean time, For drawing out and weighing the activation factors for SATC, the Fuzzy-AHP was adopted. As a result, 'Sea & Air transportation-related information system policies' is the most important factor among the principle criteria, and 'the construction of consolidation logistics center' is the most important factor among the 12 sub-principle criteria. |
| Key Words:
Sea & Air 물동량;
Sea & AIr Transport Cargoes;Multimodal Transport;ARIMA;Fuzzy-AHP |
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