| 해양사고 예보 시스템 개발(Ⅰ): 해양사고 수량화 D/B 구축과 분석 |
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임정빈 |
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| Development of Marine Casualty Forecasting System (Ⅰ) : Construction and Analysis of Marine Casualty Numerical D/B |
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Jeong-Bin Yim |
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| Abstract |
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The paper describes on the construction and analysis of marine casualty numerical D/B (N-D/B) to implement Korean MArine Casualty FOrecasting System (K-MACFOS). The main target of K-MACFOS is to broadcast the prediction number and risk level of marine casualties as like daily weather forecasting. The data relating to a total of 724 ship casualties in the west-southern sea area (33oN~35oN, 124oE~127oE) of Korean peninsula for 11 years (1990~2000) have been compiled and converted into quantitative data with 14 numeric conversion scales. Through the statistical analysis using contour-map visualization, the usability of N-D/B and the casualty features of the target sea areas are discussed. In addition the optimum year-band selection method is also proposed to provide correct N-D/B analysis and precise prediction of the number of marine casualties. |
| Key Words:
Ship casualty;Korean Marine Casualty Forecasting System;Numerical D/B;Numeric conversion scale;Optimum year-band selection |
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