A Study on Model of Regional Logistics Requirements Prediction

Lu, Bo; Park, Nam-Kyu

Journal of Navigation and Port Research 2012;36(7):553-559.
Published online September 30, 2012.

A Study on Model of Regional Logistics Requirements Prediction

Abstract

It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Erdos as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Erdos and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

Key Words: Spatial economics;Logistics requirements potential model;Regional logistics prediction;Economic distance