The Estimation of the Future Container Ship Traffic for Three Major ports in Korea

Kim, Jung-Hoon

Journal of Navigation and Port Research 2007;31(5):353-359.
Published online June 30, 2007.

국내 3대 주요 컨테이너항만의 장래 컨테이너선박 교통량 추정

김정훈

The Estimation of the Future Container Ship Traffic for Three Major ports in Korea

Jung-Hoon Kim

Abstract

Effective plan and operation managements can be established in advance if the traffic volume of container ship will be forecasted in the trend for container port's cargo volume to increase. At the viewpoint for marine traffic the number of incoming and outgoing container ship can be presumed in the long run and organized rational plans to deal the demand of marine traffic on the basis. Therefore, the paper estimated the future traffic volume of incoming and outgoing container ship for Busan, Gwangyang, and Incheon port on a forecasting data basis of container volume suggested I the national ports base plan. The trends of volume per ship on container were estimated with ARIMA models and seasonal index was computed. Thus the traffic volume of container ship in the future was estimated computing with volume per ship in 2011, 2015, and 2020 respectively.

Key Words: ARIMA 모형; Container ship traffic;Container volume;Volume per ship;ARIMA model;Seasonal index